← 返回 Rank29 监控中心 · 主报告

Rank29 · regime gate backtest

生成时间:2026-03-31 10:18:50 UTC | 目标:验证“低趋势 + 高噪音”与“低趋势 + 低波动”两类坏环境 gate,比较 5 年整体表现与最近 120/60 天的修复效果。

hard verdict

gate 定义

命中月份:low_trend_low_vol = 13;low_trend_high_noise = 14;combined = 20

重点对比表:5 年 + 最近 120 天 + 最近 60 天

下面这张表专门给你看 baseline 与几种最 relevant 的 gate 版本。读法重点:如果一个 gate 的 5 年降幅可接受,同时 120d / 60d 改善明显,它才值得推进到下一轮 paper A/B。

6bps / side

variant5y mean asset total5y mean month120d mean asset total120d mean month120d worst month60d mean asset total60d mean month60d worst monthmean exposure
baseline670921.61%12.18%41.39%7.38%1.39%17.17%5.69%1.39%100.00%
low_trend_high_noise_w25198446.91%10.68%28.12%5.16%0.35%16.24%5.34%0.35%82.99%
low_trend_high_noise_w00131222.89%10.21%23.93%4.46%0.00%15.93%5.22%0.00%77.32%
low_trend_low_vol_w25285987.75%11.30%24.90%4.73%1.00%15.99%5.32%0.36%84.41%

10bps / side

variant5y mean asset total5y mean month120d mean asset total120d mean month120d worst month60d mean asset total60d mean month60d worst monthmean exposure
baseline109454.66%8.93%26.81%5.04%-1.29%10.84%3.72%-1.29%100.00%
low_trend_high_noise_w2543970.29%7.97%19.59%3.70%-0.32%12.18%4.04%-0.32%82.99%
low_trend_high_noise_w0032202.03%7.67%17.23%3.27%0.00%12.63%4.15%0.00%77.32%
low_trend_low_vol_w2561622.20%8.52%16.66%3.28%-1.29%9.89%3.41%-1.29%84.41%

15bps / side(最该盯的一档)

variant5y mean asset total5y mean month120d mean asset total120d mean month120d worst month60d mean asset total60d mean month60d worst monthmean exposure
baseline11258.72%4.99%10.68%2.21%-4.54%3.40%1.33%-4.54%100.00%
low_trend_high_noise_w256609.62%4.69%9.72%1.91%-2.01%7.31%2.46%-1.15%82.99%
low_trend_high_noise_w005491.51%4.61%9.36%1.82%-2.01%8.63%2.84%0.00%77.32%
low_trend_low_vol_w258969.31%5.16%7.11%1.52%-4.54%2.72%1.09%-4.54%84.41%

怎么读 15bps 这张表(人话版)

最近 18 个月 gate 命中月份

monthlow_trend_low_vollow_trend_high_noisecombined
2024-10
2024-11
2024-12
2025-01
2025-02
2025-03
2025-04
2025-05
2025-06
2025-07
2025-08
2025-09
2025-10
2025-11
2025-12
2026-01
2026-02
2026-03