Rank 102 · retest 后重破 impulse extreme continuation gate（time stability check）

Run 2Light Stability Packtime stability

desk verdict：park / evidence pool

一句话原因：older half 仍没穿过时间稳定性，跨资产也不是两半都够硬；按 desk 规则应直接收口为 park。

• older half：跨资产平均总收益 -0.14%，正资产占比 33.33%，false-follow-through 55.65%。
• recent half：跨资产平均总收益 5.28%，正资产占比 66.67%，false-follow-through 43.82%。
• 换成人话：这条 gate 不是完全没料，但明显更像后半窗 pocket；older half 还没有稳定穿门。

half summary

time_half	mean_total_return	positive_asset_ratio	mean_trade_count	mean_avg_net_ret	mean_win_rate	mean_false_follow_4bars	min_asset_return	max_asset_return
older_half	-0.14%	33.33%	39.7	1.81 bps	34.90%	55.65%	-7.78%	10.56%
recent_half	5.28%	66.67%	39.3	15.49 bps	49.45%	43.82%	-2.78%	13.12%

per-asset half summary

asset	time_half	trades	total_return	avg_net_ret	win_rate	false_follow_4bars_rate
BTC-USD	older_half	41	-7.78%	-19.51 bps	31.71%	58.54%
ETH-USD	older_half	34	10.56%	31.12 bps	41.18%	47.06%
SOL-USD	older_half	44	-3.19%	-6.20 bps	31.82%	61.36%
BTC-USD	recent_half	40	5.49%	14.18 bps	45.00%	47.50%
ETH-USD	recent_half	34	13.12%	36.94 bps	64.71%	29.41%
SOL-USD	recent_half	44	-2.78%	-4.64 bps	38.64%	54.55%

verdict summary

variant	overall_mean_avg_net_ret	overall_positive_asset_ratio	overall_trade_count_retention	overall_false_follow_4bars_rate	older_half_mean_total_return	recent_half_mean_total_return	older_half_positive_asset_ratio	recent_half_positive_asset_ratio	older_half_mean_false_follow_4bars	recent_half_mean_false_follow_4bars	min_half_positive_asset_ratio	bucket_return_spread
impulse_rebreak_gate	6.77 bps	33.33%	39.77%	50.63%	-0.14%	5.28%	33.33%	66.67%	55.65%	43.82%	33.33%	5.41%

reader-facing 结论

• `impulse re-break` 在 `breakout_short` 上确实留下了改良味道，但 improvement 主要集中在 recent half，不够稳定。
• older half 里只有 `ETH` 转正，`BTC / SOL` 仍为负；这不足以支撑 shared gate 继续升格为 paper candidate。
• 因此这次 cheap honesty check 做完后，按 desk 规则应直接收口为 park / evidence pool，下一手切 Rank 103，而不是继续给 Rank 102 第三轮近义检查。

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