Rank 125 · range location veto gate · cost / trade stability check

当前 hard verdict：keep_P1 / budget used

这层 uplift 在 6/10/15 bps 下都没有被直接打穿，但它仍主要集中在 breakout_short no-chase 与 ema_psar_long 的局部改善，trade retention 也明显下滑，所以当前更诚实的位置是 keep_P1 且默认预算用尽，不直接升 P2。

检查口径：复用同一份 clean-room trade log；只看 6 / 10 / 15 bps 成本梯度下的 return delta、failure delta、trade retention

总体稳定性快照

cost_bps	mean_return_delta	mean_failure_delta	mean_trade_retention	positive_setup_count	non_worsening_failure_count
6.00	0.05%	-1.21%	84.25%	2.00	3.00
10.00	0.05%	-1.21%	84.25%	2.00	3.00
15.00	0.05%	-1.21%	84.25%	2.00	3.00

分 setup 成本 / 交易数稳定性

setup	cost_bps	baseline_return	gate_return	return_delta	baseline_failure	gate_failure	failure_delta	baseline_trades	gate_trades	trade_retention
breakout_short	6.00	-0.11%	-0.01%	0.10%	51.77%	49.36%	-2.41%	282.00	156.00	55.32%
ema_psar_long	6.00	0.22%	0.29%	0.07%	53.85%	52.63%	-1.21%	39.00	38.00	97.44%
fib_retest_long	6.00	0.15%	0.15%	0.00%	28.57%	28.57%	0.00%	7.00	7.00	100.00%
breakout_short	10.00	-0.19%	-0.09%	0.10%	51.77%	49.36%	-2.41%	282.00	156.00	55.32%
ema_psar_long	10.00	0.14%	0.21%	0.07%	53.85%	52.63%	-1.21%	39.00	38.00	97.44%
fib_retest_long	10.00	0.07%	0.07%	0.00%	28.57%	28.57%	0.00%	7.00	7.00	100.00%
breakout_short	15.00	-0.29%	-0.19%	0.10%	51.77%	49.36%	-2.41%	282.00	156.00	55.32%
ema_psar_long	15.00	0.04%	0.11%	0.07%	53.85%	52.63%	-1.21%	39.00	38.00	97.44%
fib_retest_long	15.00	-0.03%	-0.03%	0.00%	28.57%	28.57%	0.00%	7.00	7.00	100.00%

分资产成本快照

asset	cost_bps	baseline_return	gate_return	return_delta	baseline_trades	gate_trades	trade_retention
BTC-USD	6.00	-0.20%	-0.13%	0.06%	111.00	66.00	59.46%
ETH-USD	6.00	-0.04%	0.05%	0.08%	104.00	73.00	70.19%
SOL-USD	6.00	0.04%	0.24%	0.20%	113.00	62.00	54.87%
BTC-USD	10.00	-0.28%	-0.21%	0.06%	111.00	66.00	59.46%
ETH-USD	10.00	-0.12%	-0.03%	0.08%	104.00	73.00	70.19%
SOL-USD	10.00	-0.04%	0.16%	0.20%	113.00	62.00	54.87%
BTC-USD	15.00	-0.38%	-0.31%	0.06%	111.00	66.00	59.46%
ETH-USD	15.00	-0.22%	-0.13%	0.08%	104.00	73.00	70.19%
SOL-USD	15.00	-0.14%	0.06%	0.20%	113.00	62.00	54.87%

当前最诚实的人话

• ema_psar_long：小幅增益在成本抬高后仍保留，但幅度不够把它推成 shared 默认层。
• breakout_short：no-chase veto 方向没错，但收益改善继续伴随明显 trade retention 下降，更像值得留样而不是直接升格。
• fib_retest_long：基本等价，说明它还谈不上真正三线通吃。

artifact

• reports/artifacts/scout_rank125_range_location_veto_15m/cost_trade_stability_summary.csv
• reports/artifacts/scout_rank125_range_location_veto_15m/cost_trade_stability_overall.csv
• reports/artifacts/scout_rank125_range_location_veto_15m/asset_cost_stability_summary.csv
• reports/artifacts/scout_rank125_range_location_veto_15m/cost_trade_stability_summary.json