preview_unclosed_15m 模式用未收盘 15m K 线价格估算小时级 EMA,等效提前约 45 分钟预知未来;(2) 回测脚本 warmup 窗口膨胀,导致长期回测结果被撤回作废(见 INVALIDATED_BY_WARMUP_AUDIT_2026-04-07.md);(3) 实盘 vs 模拟 close match rate 仅 11.8%,去除 preview 后所有时间窗口 live-like 回测均为负收益。生成时间:2026-03-25T11:01:45Z | 基于 VIP0 双边万5/万5 的 23 币热门池研究,目标是把“研究结论”压成可落地的 live 规则:哪些币可以加、哪些只建议热期提权、以及需要加什么额外过滤器。
Tier A = 6 Tier B1 = 5 Tier B2 = 4 Tier C = 8
hot exploratory universe,与主 18 币分开管理。ATR14 / close 高于该币自己过去 120D 的 40% 分位数 时允许交易。这是研究里最平衡、最容易提纯冷期质量的 gate。|close/close[-36]-1| > 1.5% 且 regime_score_36 > 2.0。strongest_signal_only 和 max_concurrent_positions = 1。对这批币不建议先把并发开大。| tier | symbol | base_trades | base_total_return | base_avg_net_ret | hot_total_return | hot_avg_net_ret | cold_trades | cold_total_return | cold_avg_net_ret | quote_volume_median_120d | heat_ratio_120d | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier A · 可考虑纳入 live exploratory | BEATUSDT | 120 | 200.59% | 0.96% | 54.22% | 1.19% | 45 | 32.78% | 0.64% | 47.6M | 31.6 | 整体强、冷期也站得住,适合进入 hot exploratory universe。 |
| Tier A · 可考虑纳入 live exploratory | TRADOORUSDT | 103 | 92.79% | 0.66% | 87.31% | 1.66% | 29 | 9.22% | 0.31% | 8.1M | 144.8 | 整体强、冷期也站得住,适合进入 hot exploratory universe。 |
| Tier A · 可考虑纳入 live exploratory | PIPPINUSDT | 120 | 37.01% | 0.30% | 4.12% | 0.20% | 64 | 35.35% | 0.48% | 267.6M | 6.9 | 整体强、冷期也站得住,适合进入 hot exploratory universe。 |
| Tier A · 可考虑纳入 live exploratory | ACTUSDT | 89 | 32.27% | 0.32% | 27.02% | 0.52% | 23 | 6.99% | 0.30% | 5.6M | 23.5 | 整体强、冷期也站得住,适合进入 hot exploratory universe。 |
| Tier A · 可考虑纳入 live exploratory | BRETTUSDT | 62 | 20.61% | 0.31% | 10.40% | 0.42% | 29 | 8.79% | 0.29% | 3.2M | 13.0 | 整体强、冷期也站得住,适合进入 hot exploratory universe。 |
| Tier A · 可考虑纳入 live exploratory | TURBOUSDT | 47 | 16.62% | 0.33% | 19.25% | 0.54% | 15 | 4.68% | 0.31% | 12.3M | 59.8 | 整体强、冷期也站得住,适合进入 hot exploratory universe。 |
| Tier B1 · 只建议热期提权 | SIRENUSDT | 104 | 131.62% | 0.83% | 88.78% | 1.25% | 26 | 4.88% | 0.19% | 2.1M | 1359.0 | 热期很强,但退潮后更脆,需要 activity/vol/trend 过滤后再提权。 |
| Tier B1 · 只建议热期提权 | FARTCOINUSDT | 95 | 39.37% | 0.36% | 43.90% | 1.00% | 31 | 1.34% | 0.05% | 91.8M | 4.1 | 热期很强,但退潮后更脆,需要 activity/vol/trend 过滤后再提权。 |
| Tier B1 · 只建议热期提权 | PENGUUSDT | 43 | 17.42% | 0.38% | 11.22% | 0.49% | 15 | -1.07% | -0.07% | 62.8M | 4.7 | 热期很强,但退潮后更脆,需要 activity/vol/trend 过滤后再提权。 |
| Tier B1 · 只建议热期提权 | MEWUSDT | 41 | 11.67% | 0.27% | 13.89% | 0.77% | 20 | 2.99% | 0.15% | 2.3M | 7.0 | 热期很强,但退潮后更脆,需要 activity/vol/trend 过滤后再提权。 |
| Tier B1 · 只建议热期提权 | 1000PEPEUSDT | 42 | 9.25% | 0.22% | 14.68% | 0.48% | 18 | 3.87% | 0.21% | 346.1M | 5.5 | 热期很强,但退潮后更脆,需要 activity/vol/trend 过滤后再提权。 |
| Tier B2 · 次级候选/继续观察 | WIFUSDT | 59 | 17.55% | 0.28% | 3.13% | 0.17% | 14 | 5.67% | 0.40% | 70.0M | 5.8 | 整体不差,但 edge 更薄,建议先 shadow 观察。 |
| Tier B2 · 次级候选/继续观察 | MEMEUSDT | 48 | 11.23% | 0.23% | 5.89% | 0.23% | 24 | 10.59% | 0.42% | 6.2M | 43.5 | 整体不差,但 edge 更薄,建议先 shadow 观察。 |
| Tier B2 · 次级候选/继续观察 | MOODENGUSDT | 42 | 7.86% | 0.19% | 1.86% | 0.10% | 16 | 5.42% | 0.33% | 12.0M | 70.0 | 整体不差,但 edge 更薄,建议先 shadow 观察。 |
| Tier B2 · 次级候选/继续观察 | GOATUSDT | 35 | 4.08% | 0.12% | -2.58% | -0.23% | 18 | 5.55% | 0.30% | 2.2M | 9.1 | 整体不差,但 edge 更薄,建议先 shadow 观察。 |
| Tier C · 暂不建议纳入 | NOTUSDT | 41 | 17.47% | 0.40% | 5.73% | 0.51% | 17 | 3.17% | 0.19% | 3.9M | 22.0 | 当前证据不足或退潮后过弱,不建议直接放进 live。 |
| Tier C · 暂不建议纳入 | PNUTUSDT | 32 | 15.20% | 0.45% | 1.74% | 0.18% | 11 | 1.53% | 0.14% | 9.6M | 8.0 | 当前证据不足或退潮后过弱,不建议直接放进 live。 |
| Tier C · 暂不建议纳入 | NEIROUSDT | 39 | 13.45% | 0.33% | 7.51% | 0.56% | 14 | 1.83% | 0.13% | 13.4M | 6.5 | 当前证据不足或退潮后过弱,不建议直接放进 live。 |
| Tier C · 暂不建议纳入 | POPCATUSDT | 44 | 13.40% | 0.29% | 6.68% | 0.41% | 21 | 4.71% | 0.22% | 4.8M | 9.9 | 当前证据不足或退潮后过弱,不建议直接放进 live。 |
| Tier C · 暂不建议纳入 | 1000BONKUSDT | 40 | 11.60% | 0.28% | 6.35% | 0.35% | 18 | 2.55% | 0.14% | 43.3M | 19.5 | 当前证据不足或退潮后过弱,不建议直接放进 live。 |
| Tier C · 暂不建议纳入 | BOMEUSDT | 37 | 10.91% | 0.28% | 4.05% | 0.45% | 20 | 3.89% | 0.19% | 7.6M | 9.5 | 当前证据不足或退潮后过弱,不建议直接放进 live。 |
| Tier C · 暂不建议纳入 | HIPPOUSDT | 93 | 6.30% | 0.07% | 0.82% | 0.04% | 31 | 8.01% | 0.25% | 1.5M | 41.6 | 当前证据不足或退潮后过弱,不建议直接放进 live。 |
| Tier C · 暂不建议纳入 | CATIUSDT | 42 | 5.55% | 0.13% | 4.79% | 0.28% | 24 | 3.79% | 0.16% | 1.2M | 6.0 | 当前证据不足或退潮后过弱,不建议直接放进 live。 |
| symbol | base_trades | base_total_return | base_avg_net_ret | cold_trades | cold_total_return | cold_avg_net_ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEATUSDT | 120 | 200.59% | 0.96% | 45 | 32.78% | 0.64% |
| TRADOORUSDT | 103 | 92.79% | 0.66% | 29 | 9.22% | 0.31% |
| PIPPINUSDT | 120 | 37.01% | 0.30% | 64 | 35.35% | 0.48% |
| ACTUSDT | 89 | 32.27% | 0.32% | 23 | 6.99% | 0.30% |
| BRETTUSDT | 62 | 20.61% | 0.31% | 29 | 8.79% | 0.29% |
| TURBOUSDT | 47 | 16.62% | 0.33% | 15 | 4.68% | 0.31% |
这批币的共同特点是:整体强、冷期也没明显塌掉,所以更适合做第一批 exploratory live additions。
| symbol | base_trades | base_total_return | hot_total_return | hot_avg_net_ret | cold_total_return | cold_avg_net_ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIRENUSDT | 104 | 131.62% | 88.78% | 1.25% | 4.88% | 0.19% |
| FARTCOINUSDT | 95 | 39.37% | 43.90% | 1.00% | 1.34% | 0.05% |
| PENGUUSDT | 43 | 17.42% | 11.22% | 0.49% | -1.07% | -0.07% |
| MEWUSDT | 41 | 11.67% | 13.89% | 0.77% | 2.99% | 0.15% |
| 1000PEPEUSDT | 42 | 9.25% | 14.68% | 0.48% | 3.87% | 0.21% |
这批币不是不能做,而是明显更依赖热点阶段。如果你要放进 live,请默认绑定 activity / volatility / trend 三层门。
| symbol | base_trades | base_total_return | base_avg_net_ret | cold_trades | cold_total_return | cold_avg_net_ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIFUSDT | 59 | 17.55% | 0.28% | 14 | 5.67% | 0.40% |
| MEMEUSDT | 48 | 11.23% | 0.23% | 24 | 10.59% | 0.42% |
| MOODENGUSDT | 42 | 7.86% | 0.19% | 16 | 5.42% | 0.33% |
| GOATUSDT | 35 | 4.08% | 0.12% | 18 | 5.55% | 0.30% |
| symbol | base_trades | base_total_return | base_avg_net_ret | cold_trades | cold_total_return | cold_avg_net_ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOTUSDT | 41 | 17.47% | 0.40% | 17 | 3.17% | 0.19% |
| PNUTUSDT | 32 | 15.20% | 0.45% | 11 | 1.53% | 0.14% |
| NEIROUSDT | 39 | 13.45% | 0.33% | 14 | 1.83% | 0.13% |
| POPCATUSDT | 44 | 13.40% | 0.29% | 21 | 4.71% | 0.22% |
| 1000BONKUSDT | 40 | 11.60% | 0.28% | 18 | 2.55% | 0.14% |
| BOMEUSDT | 37 | 10.91% | 0.28% | 20 | 3.89% | 0.19% |
| HIPPOUSDT | 93 | 6.30% | 0.07% | 31 | 8.01% | 0.25% |
| CATIUSDT | 42 | 5.55% | 0.13% | 24 | 3.79% | 0.16% |