Rank 64 / pullback-quality score gate — 最小 clean replication

生成时间:2026-03-18 19:38 UTC

结论:park / evidence pool

回踩质量打分没有把 15m setup 稳定拉回 admission 线。

6bps 下 `full_score_80` 仍只有 mean_total_return≈-0.20%、positive_asset_ratio≈33.33%、mean_trades≈2.9、trade_count_retention≈12.41%、false_follow_4bars≈24.26%,更像 research evidence,不像可升格的 paper candidate。

本轮只回答一个问题:把 `trendPts + zonePts + volPts + triggerPts` 压成 15m 的 shared pullback-quality score 后,能不能比二元 `retest_hold` 更诚实地改善三条 base setup 的成本后表现与 false-follow-through。

本轮冻结口径

overall summary

variantcost_bps_per_sidemean_total_returnpositive_asset_ratiomean_tradesmean_trade_count_retentionmean_avg_net_retmean_false_follow_4bars_ratemean_hold_barsmean_scoremean_depth_atrmean_pullback_vol_ratio
base6-1.55%44.44%22.1100.00%-0.07%19.01%6.8146.40.2994.93%
full_score_806-0.20%33.33%2.912.41%-0.11%24.26%6.7185.41.11103.05%
zone_only6-0.54%33.33%6.634.35%-0.27%42.20%5.3962.91.1590.74%
zone_plus_vol6-0.87%22.22%3.216.52%-0.43%45.37%5.3270.91.1463.89%
base10-3.27%33.33%22.1100.00%-0.15%19.01%6.8146.40.2994.93%
full_score_8010-0.43%11.11%2.912.41%-0.19%24.26%6.7185.41.11103.05%
zone_only10-1.06%11.11%6.634.35%-0.35%42.20%5.3962.91.1590.74%
zone_plus_vol10-1.13%11.11%3.216.52%-0.51%45.37%5.3270.91.1463.89%
base15-5.37%11.11%22.1100.00%-0.25%19.01%6.8146.40.2994.93%
full_score_8015-0.72%11.11%2.912.41%-0.29%24.26%6.7185.41.11103.05%
zone_only15-1.71%11.11%6.634.35%-0.45%42.20%5.3962.91.1590.74%
zone_plus_vol15-1.45%11.11%3.216.52%-0.61%45.37%5.3270.91.1463.89%
base20-7.42%0.00%22.1100.00%-0.35%19.01%6.8146.40.2994.93%
full_score_8020-1.00%11.11%2.912.41%-0.39%24.26%6.7185.41.11103.05%
zone_only20-2.35%11.11%6.634.35%-0.55%42.20%5.3962.91.1590.74%
zone_plus_vol20-1.76%11.11%3.216.52%-0.71%45.37%5.3270.91.1463.89%

asset-level summary

assetsetupvariantcost_bps_per_sidesignal_eventstradestrade_count_retentiontotal_returnavg_net_retfalse_follow_4bars_ratemean_hold_barsmean_scoremean_depth_atrmean_pullback_vol_ratio
BTC-USDbreakout_shortbase623.0023100.00%-0.25%-0.01%13.04%7.0935.7-1.00113.29%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortbase614.0014100.00%-5.14%-0.37%7.14%7.4336.4-0.4475.29%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortbase624.0024100.00%-3.13%-0.13%12.50%7.2542.9-0.4681.52%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortbase1023.0023100.00%-2.07%-0.09%13.04%7.0935.7-1.00113.29%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortbase1014.0014100.00%-6.20%-0.45%7.14%7.4336.4-0.4475.29%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortbase1024.0024100.00%-4.98%-0.21%12.50%7.2542.9-0.4681.52%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortbase1523.0023100.00%-4.30%-0.19%13.04%7.0935.7-1.00113.29%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortbase1514.0014100.00%-7.51%-0.55%7.14%7.4336.4-0.4475.29%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortbase1524.0024100.00%-7.23%-0.31%12.50%7.2542.9-0.4681.52%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortbase2023.0023100.00%-6.48%-0.29%13.04%7.0935.7-1.00113.29%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortbase2014.0014100.00%-8.79%-0.65%7.14%7.4336.4-0.4475.29%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortbase2024.0024100.00%-9.44%-0.41%12.50%7.2542.9-0.4681.52%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_80623.0000.00%0.00%------
ETH-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_80614.0000.00%0.00%------
SOL-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_80624.0000.00%0.00%------
BTC-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_801023.0000.00%0.00%------
ETH-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_801014.0000.00%0.00%------
SOL-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_801024.0000.00%0.00%------
BTC-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_801523.0000.00%0.00%------
ETH-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_801514.0000.00%0.00%------
SOL-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_801524.0000.00%0.00%------
BTC-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_802023.0000.00%0.00%------
ETH-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_802014.0000.00%0.00%------
SOL-USDbreakout_shortfull_score_802024.0000.00%0.00%------
BTC-USDbreakout_shortzone_only623.0014.35%-0.67%-0.67%100.00%1.0050.00.7169.97%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortzone_only614.0017.14%-0.71%-0.71%0.00%8.0050.01.3159.50%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortzone_only624.00312.50%-3.67%-1.24%100.00%2.0063.31.5070.30%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortzone_only1023.0014.35%-0.75%-0.75%100.00%1.0050.00.7169.97%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortzone_only1014.0017.14%-0.79%-0.79%0.00%8.0050.01.3159.50%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortzone_only1024.00312.50%-3.90%-1.31%100.00%2.0063.31.5070.30%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortzone_only1523.0014.35%-0.85%-0.85%100.00%1.0050.00.7169.97%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortzone_only1514.0017.14%-0.89%-0.89%0.00%8.0050.01.3159.50%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortzone_only1524.00312.50%-4.19%-1.41%100.00%2.0063.31.5070.30%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortzone_only2023.0014.35%-0.95%-0.95%100.00%1.0050.00.7169.97%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortzone_only2014.0017.14%-0.99%-0.99%0.00%8.0050.01.3159.50%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortzone_only2024.00312.50%-4.47%-1.51%100.00%2.0063.31.5070.30%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol623.0014.35%-0.67%-0.67%100.00%1.0050.00.7169.97%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol614.0017.14%-0.71%-0.71%0.00%8.0050.01.3159.50%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol624.00312.50%-3.67%-1.24%100.00%2.0063.31.5070.30%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol1023.0014.35%-0.75%-0.75%100.00%1.0050.00.7169.97%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol1014.0017.14%-0.79%-0.79%0.00%8.0050.01.3159.50%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol1024.00312.50%-3.90%-1.31%100.00%2.0063.31.5070.30%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol1523.0014.35%-0.85%-0.85%100.00%1.0050.00.7169.97%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol1514.0017.14%-0.89%-0.89%0.00%8.0050.01.3159.50%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol1524.00312.50%-4.19%-1.41%100.00%2.0063.31.5070.30%
BTC-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol2023.0014.35%-0.95%-0.95%100.00%1.0050.00.7169.97%
ETH-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol2014.0017.14%-0.99%-0.99%0.00%8.0050.01.3159.50%
SOL-USDbreakout_shortzone_plus_vol2024.00312.50%-4.47%-1.51%100.00%2.0063.31.5070.30%
BTC-USDema_psar_longbase635.0035100.00%1.05%0.03%20.00%6.6654.00.1888.97%
ETH-USDema_psar_longbase635.0035100.00%-13.73%-0.41%20.00%6.7152.00.1391.61%
SOL-USDema_psar_longbase635.0035100.00%6.54%0.20%25.71%6.7448.00.1999.34%
BTC-USDema_psar_longbase1035.0035100.00%-1.74%-0.05%20.00%6.6654.00.1888.97%
ETH-USDema_psar_longbase1035.0035100.00%-16.12%-0.49%20.00%6.7152.00.1391.61%
SOL-USDema_psar_longbase1035.0035100.00%3.59%0.12%25.71%6.7448.00.1999.34%
BTC-USDema_psar_longbase1535.0035100.00%-5.13%-0.15%20.00%6.6654.00.1888.97%
ETH-USDema_psar_longbase1535.0035100.00%-19.01%-0.59%20.00%6.7152.00.1391.61%
SOL-USDema_psar_longbase1535.0035100.00%0.03%0.02%25.71%6.7448.00.1999.34%
BTC-USDema_psar_longbase2035.0035100.00%-8.40%-0.25%20.00%6.6654.00.1888.97%
ETH-USDema_psar_longbase2035.0035100.00%-21.80%-0.69%20.00%6.7152.00.1391.61%
SOL-USDema_psar_longbase2035.0035100.00%-3.42%-0.08%25.71%6.7448.00.1999.34%
BTC-USDema_psar_longfull_score_80635.00617.14%0.08%0.02%33.33%6.0090.00.8565.74%
ETH-USDema_psar_longfull_score_80635.00925.71%0.13%0.02%22.22%6.7882.20.9787.71%
SOL-USDema_psar_longfull_score_80635.00514.29%-1.14%-0.23%40.00%6.0080.00.89140.12%
BTC-USDema_psar_longfull_score_801035.00617.14%-0.40%-0.06%33.33%6.0090.00.8565.74%
ETH-USDema_psar_longfull_score_801035.00925.71%-0.59%-0.06%22.22%6.7882.20.9787.71%
SOL-USDema_psar_longfull_score_801035.00514.29%-1.54%-0.31%40.00%6.0080.00.89140.12%
BTC-USDema_psar_longfull_score_801535.00617.14%-1.00%-0.16%33.33%6.0090.00.8565.74%
ETH-USDema_psar_longfull_score_801535.00925.71%-1.48%-0.16%22.22%6.7882.20.9787.71%
SOL-USDema_psar_longfull_score_801535.00514.29%-2.03%-0.41%40.00%6.0080.00.89140.12%
BTC-USDema_psar_longfull_score_802035.00617.14%-1.59%-0.26%33.33%6.0090.00.8565.74%
ETH-USDema_psar_longfull_score_802035.00925.71%-2.36%-0.26%22.22%6.7882.20.9787.71%
SOL-USDema_psar_longfull_score_802035.00514.29%-2.52%-0.51%40.00%6.0080.00.89140.12%
BTC-USDema_psar_longzone_only635.001131.43%0.39%0.04%36.36%5.8272.70.9689.36%
ETH-USDema_psar_longzone_only635.001440.00%-3.48%-0.25%35.71%6.0073.61.0680.25%
SOL-USDema_psar_longzone_only635.00822.86%5.12%0.64%25.00%6.7568.80.97137.37%
BTC-USDema_psar_longzone_only1035.001131.43%-0.49%-0.04%36.36%5.8272.70.9689.36%
ETH-USDema_psar_longzone_only1035.001440.00%-4.55%-0.33%35.71%6.0073.61.0680.25%
SOL-USDema_psar_longzone_only1035.00822.86%4.45%0.56%25.00%6.7568.80.97137.37%
BTC-USDema_psar_longzone_only1535.001131.43%-1.58%-0.14%36.36%5.8272.70.9689.36%
ETH-USDema_psar_longzone_only1535.001440.00%-5.88%-0.43%35.71%6.0073.61.0680.25%
SOL-USDema_psar_longzone_only1535.00822.86%3.62%0.46%25.00%6.7568.80.97137.37%
BTC-USDema_psar_longzone_only2035.001131.43%-2.66%-0.24%36.36%5.8272.70.9689.36%
ETH-USDema_psar_longzone_only2035.001440.00%-7.19%-0.53%35.71%6.0073.61.0680.25%
SOL-USDema_psar_longzone_only2035.00822.86%2.79%0.36%25.00%6.7568.80.97137.37%
BTC-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol635.00617.14%0.08%0.02%33.33%6.0090.00.8565.74%
ETH-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol635.00822.86%-0.46%-0.05%25.00%6.7572.51.1259.78%
SOL-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol635.0012.86%-1.03%-1.03%100.00%3.0080.00.7487.89%
BTC-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol1035.00617.14%-0.40%-0.06%33.33%6.0090.00.8565.74%
ETH-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol1035.00822.86%-1.09%-0.13%25.00%6.7572.51.1259.78%
SOL-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol1035.0012.86%-1.11%-1.11%100.00%3.0080.00.7487.89%
BTC-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol1535.00617.14%-1.00%-0.16%33.33%6.0090.00.8565.74%
ETH-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol1535.00822.86%-1.88%-0.23%25.00%6.7572.51.1259.78%
SOL-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol1535.0012.86%-1.21%-1.21%100.00%3.0080.00.7487.89%
BTC-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol2035.00617.14%-1.59%-0.26%33.33%6.0090.00.8565.74%
ETH-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol2035.00822.86%-2.66%-0.33%25.00%6.7572.51.1259.78%
SOL-USDema_psar_longzone_plus_vol2035.0012.86%-1.31%-1.31%100.00%3.0080.00.7487.89%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longbase611.0011100.00%1.93%0.18%18.18%6.8250.01.62107.44%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longbase611.0011100.00%-2.46%-0.22%27.27%6.2751.80.90103.65%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longbase611.0011100.00%1.25%0.12%27.27%6.3646.41.5193.24%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longbase1011.0011100.00%1.04%0.10%18.18%6.8250.01.62107.44%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longbase1011.0011100.00%-3.32%-0.30%27.27%6.2751.80.90103.65%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longbase1011.0011100.00%0.37%0.04%27.27%6.3646.41.5193.24%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longbase1511.0011100.00%-0.07%-0.00%18.18%6.8250.01.62107.44%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longbase1511.0011100.00%-4.38%-0.40%27.27%6.2751.80.90103.65%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longbase1511.0011100.00%-0.73%-0.06%27.27%6.3646.41.5193.24%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longbase2011.0011100.00%-1.16%-0.10%18.18%6.8250.01.62107.44%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longbase2011.0011100.00%-5.43%-0.50%27.27%6.2751.80.90103.65%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longbase2011.0011100.00%-1.82%-0.16%27.27%6.3646.41.5193.24%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_80611.00218.18%1.35%0.67%0.00%8.0080.00.94153.75%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_80611.00218.18%-1.05%-0.52%50.00%6.0080.01.6690.72%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_80611.00218.18%-1.19%-0.60%0.00%7.50100.01.3480.25%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_801011.00218.18%1.19%0.59%0.00%8.0080.00.94153.75%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_801011.00218.18%-1.21%-0.60%50.00%6.0080.01.6690.72%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_801011.00218.18%-1.35%-0.68%0.00%7.50100.01.3480.25%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_801511.00218.18%0.99%0.49%0.00%8.0080.00.94153.75%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_801511.00218.18%-1.40%-0.70%50.00%6.0080.01.6690.72%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_801511.00218.18%-1.54%-0.77%0.00%7.50100.01.3480.25%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_802011.00218.18%0.78%0.39%0.00%8.0080.00.94153.75%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_802011.00218.18%-1.60%-0.80%50.00%6.0080.01.6690.72%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longfull_score_802011.00218.18%-1.74%-0.87%0.00%7.50100.01.3480.25%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longzone_only611.00763.64%0.03%0.01%28.57%6.1458.61.09119.24%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longzone_only611.00872.73%-1.70%-0.21%37.50%6.0061.21.4891.46%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longzone_only611.00654.55%-0.20%-0.03%16.67%6.8368.31.2599.17%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longzone_only1011.00763.64%-0.53%-0.07%28.57%6.1458.61.09119.24%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longzone_only1011.00872.73%-2.33%-0.29%37.50%6.0061.21.4891.46%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longzone_only1011.00654.55%-0.68%-0.11%16.67%6.8368.31.2599.17%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longzone_only1511.00763.64%-1.22%-0.17%28.57%6.1458.61.09119.24%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longzone_only1511.00872.73%-3.11%-0.39%37.50%6.0061.21.4891.46%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longzone_only1511.00654.55%-1.27%-0.21%16.67%6.8368.31.2599.17%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longzone_only2011.00763.64%-1.91%-0.27%28.57%6.1458.61.09119.24%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longzone_only2011.00872.73%-3.88%-0.49%37.50%6.0061.21.4891.46%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longzone_only2011.00654.55%-1.87%-0.31%16.67%6.8368.31.2599.17%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol611.00218.18%0.68%0.34%0.00%8.0075.00.9441.29%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol611.00436.36%-1.92%-0.48%50.00%5.5067.51.6054.60%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol611.00327.27%-0.18%-0.06%0.00%7.6790.01.4465.92%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol1011.00218.18%0.52%0.26%0.00%8.0075.00.9441.29%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol1011.00436.36%-2.24%-0.56%50.00%5.5067.51.6054.60%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol1011.00327.27%-0.42%-0.14%0.00%7.6790.01.4465.92%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol1511.00218.18%0.32%0.16%0.00%8.0075.00.9441.29%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol1511.00436.36%-2.63%-0.66%50.00%5.5067.51.6054.60%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol1511.00327.27%-0.72%-0.24%0.00%7.6790.01.4465.92%
BTC-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol2011.00218.18%0.12%0.06%0.00%8.0075.00.9441.29%
ETH-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol2011.00436.36%-3.02%-0.76%50.00%5.5067.51.6054.60%
SOL-USDfib_retest_longzone_plus_vol2011.00327.27%-1.01%-0.34%0.00%7.6790.01.4465.92%

time-pocket honesty(full_score_80 @ 6bps)

bucketmean_total_returnpositive_asset_ratiomean_trades
bucket_1-1.06%0.00%3.0
bucket_20.34%33.33%2.7
bucket_30.13%33.33%3.0