Rank 72 / realized-vol mid-band cost-survival gate minimal clean replication

生成时间:2026-03-19 00:32 UTC
Hard verdict:park / evidence pool
Replication 口径:BTC/ETH/SOL 120d 15m;baseline / no_high_vol_extreme / rv_midband_q20_80;next-bar open;no-overlap;hold 8 bars;6/10/15 bps per side。

这轮只回答一个问题:把 realized-vol pocket 当 shared allow/deny gate 接到现有三条 archetype 上,能不能在不过度砍掉交易数的前提下,改善成本后存活。不是新 alpha,不改 entry/exit。

Overall summary

setupvariantcost_bps_per_sidemean_total_returnpositive_asset_ratiomean_expectancymean_tradesmean_trade_count_retentionmean_failure_before_targetpositive_window_ratio
breakout_shortbaseline6.00-3.36%0.00%-0.20%14.6733.33%74.26%0.00%
breakout_shortbaseline10.00-4.53%0.00%-0.28%14.6733.33%74.26%0.00%
breakout_shortbaseline15.00-5.99%0.00%-0.38%14.6733.33%74.26%0.00%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme6.00-2.46%0.00%-0.20%11.0024.34%69.11%0.00%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme10.00-3.34%0.00%-0.28%11.0024.34%69.11%0.00%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme15.00-4.43%0.00%-0.38%11.0024.34%69.11%0.00%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_806.00-2.53%0.00%-0.32%8.3317.76%70.71%0.00%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8010.00-3.19%0.00%-0.40%8.3317.76%70.71%0.00%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8015.00-4.02%0.00%-0.50%8.3317.76%70.71%0.00%
ema_psar_longbaseline6.00-4.11%33.33%-0.17%26.6733.33%68.45%66.67%
ema_psar_longbaseline10.00-6.24%33.33%-0.25%26.6733.33%68.45%0.00%
ema_psar_longbaseline15.00-8.90%0.00%-0.35%26.6733.33%68.45%0.00%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00-0.28%33.33%-0.03%21.0026.19%69.72%66.67%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00-1.96%33.33%-0.11%21.0026.19%69.72%0.00%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00-4.06%33.33%-0.21%21.0026.19%69.72%0.00%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_806.001.78%66.67%0.12%17.3321.49%67.82%66.67%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8010.000.39%33.33%0.04%17.3321.49%67.82%33.33%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00-1.34%33.33%-0.06%17.3321.49%67.82%33.33%
fib_retest_longbaseline6.00-0.22%66.67%-0.03%7.3333.33%52.38%66.67%
fib_retest_longbaseline10.00-0.81%0.00%-0.11%7.3333.33%52.38%0.00%
fib_retest_longbaseline15.00-1.54%0.00%-0.21%7.3333.33%52.38%0.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00-1.32%0.00%-0.34%5.3323.49%54.44%0.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00-1.75%0.00%-0.42%5.3323.49%54.44%0.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00-2.28%0.00%-0.52%5.3323.49%54.44%0.00%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_806.00-1.22%0.00%-0.34%5.0021.90%52.78%33.33%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00-1.62%0.00%-0.42%5.0021.90%52.78%0.00%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00-2.12%0.00%-0.52%5.0021.90%52.78%0.00%

Per-asset summary

setupvariantcost_bps_per_sideassettrade_counttotal_returnexpectancytrade_count_retentionfailure_before_targettarget_hit_rate
breakout_shortbaseline6.00BTC-USD16.00-1.50%-0.09%33.33%75.00%56.25%
breakout_shortbaseline6.00ETH-USD10.00-1.00%-0.10%33.33%70.00%60.00%
breakout_shortbaseline6.00SOL-USD18.00-7.57%-0.42%33.33%77.78%44.44%
breakout_shortbaseline10.00BTC-USD16.00-2.78%-0.17%33.33%75.00%56.25%
breakout_shortbaseline10.00ETH-USD10.00-1.80%-0.18%33.33%70.00%60.00%
breakout_shortbaseline10.00SOL-USD18.00-9.00%-0.50%33.33%77.78%44.44%
breakout_shortbaseline15.00BTC-USD16.00-4.38%-0.27%33.33%75.00%56.25%
breakout_shortbaseline15.00ETH-USD10.00-2.80%-0.28%33.33%70.00%60.00%
breakout_shortbaseline15.00SOL-USD18.00-10.80%-0.60%33.33%77.78%44.44%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme6.00BTC-USD13.00-2.30%-0.18%27.08%69.23%61.54%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme6.00ETH-USD6.00-0.67%-0.11%20.00%66.67%83.33%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme6.00SOL-USD14.00-4.40%-0.31%25.93%71.43%57.14%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme10.00BTC-USD13.00-3.34%-0.26%27.08%69.23%61.54%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme10.00ETH-USD6.00-1.15%-0.19%20.00%66.67%83.33%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme10.00SOL-USD14.00-5.52%-0.39%25.93%71.43%57.14%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme15.00BTC-USD13.00-4.64%-0.36%27.08%69.23%61.54%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme15.00ETH-USD6.00-1.75%-0.29%20.00%66.67%83.33%
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme15.00SOL-USD14.00-6.91%-0.49%25.93%71.43%57.14%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_806.00BTC-USD11.00-2.00%-0.18%22.92%63.64%63.64%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_806.00ETH-USD3.00-1.15%-0.38%10.00%66.67%66.67%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_806.00SOL-USD11.00-4.44%-0.40%20.37%81.82%54.55%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8010.00BTC-USD11.00-2.88%-0.26%22.92%63.64%63.64%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8010.00ETH-USD3.00-1.38%-0.46%10.00%66.67%66.67%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8010.00SOL-USD11.00-5.32%-0.48%20.37%81.82%54.55%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8015.00BTC-USD11.00-3.97%-0.36%22.92%63.64%63.64%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8015.00ETH-USD3.00-1.68%-0.56%10.00%66.67%66.67%
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8015.00SOL-USD11.00-6.41%-0.58%20.37%81.82%54.55%
ema_psar_longbaseline6.00BTC-USD28.00-4.86%-0.17%33.33%64.29%71.43%
ema_psar_longbaseline6.00ETH-USD24.00-10.62%-0.44%33.33%62.50%58.33%
ema_psar_longbaseline6.00SOL-USD28.003.14%0.11%33.33%78.57%67.86%
ema_psar_longbaseline10.00BTC-USD28.00-7.09%-0.25%33.33%64.29%71.43%
ema_psar_longbaseline10.00ETH-USD24.00-12.53%-0.52%33.33%62.50%58.33%
ema_psar_longbaseline10.00SOL-USD28.000.90%0.03%33.33%78.57%67.86%
ema_psar_longbaseline15.00BTC-USD28.00-9.89%-0.35%33.33%64.29%71.43%
ema_psar_longbaseline15.00ETH-USD24.00-14.92%-0.62%33.33%62.50%58.33%
ema_psar_longbaseline15.00SOL-USD28.00-1.91%-0.07%33.33%78.57%67.86%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00BTC-USD23.00-3.40%-0.15%27.38%65.22%73.91%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00ETH-USD18.00-4.70%-0.26%25.00%66.67%55.56%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00SOL-USD22.007.27%0.33%26.19%77.27%68.18%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00BTC-USD23.00-5.24%-0.23%27.38%65.22%73.91%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00ETH-USD18.00-6.14%-0.34%25.00%66.67%55.56%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00SOL-USD22.005.50%0.25%26.19%77.27%68.18%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00BTC-USD23.00-7.53%-0.33%27.38%65.22%73.91%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00ETH-USD18.00-7.94%-0.44%25.00%66.67%55.56%
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00SOL-USD22.003.30%0.15%26.19%77.27%68.18%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_806.00BTC-USD22.00-3.24%-0.15%26.19%63.64%72.73%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_806.00ETH-USD13.000.05%0.00%18.06%69.23%53.85%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_806.00SOL-USD17.008.54%0.50%20.24%70.59%70.59%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00BTC-USD22.00-5.00%-0.23%26.19%63.64%72.73%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00ETH-USD13.00-0.99%-0.08%18.06%69.23%53.85%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00SOL-USD17.007.18%0.42%20.24%70.59%70.59%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00BTC-USD22.00-7.20%-0.33%26.19%63.64%72.73%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00ETH-USD13.00-2.29%-0.18%18.06%69.23%53.85%
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00SOL-USD17.005.47%0.32%20.24%70.59%70.59%
fib_retest_longbaseline6.00BTC-USD10.000.27%0.03%33.33%60.00%70.00%
fib_retest_longbaseline6.00ETH-USD7.00-1.24%-0.18%33.33%57.14%42.86%
fib_retest_longbaseline6.00SOL-USD5.000.30%0.06%33.33%40.00%80.00%
fib_retest_longbaseline10.00BTC-USD10.00-0.53%-0.05%33.33%60.00%70.00%
fib_retest_longbaseline10.00ETH-USD7.00-1.80%-0.26%33.33%57.14%42.86%
fib_retest_longbaseline10.00SOL-USD5.00-0.10%-0.02%33.33%40.00%80.00%
fib_retest_longbaseline15.00BTC-USD10.00-1.53%-0.15%33.33%60.00%70.00%
fib_retest_longbaseline15.00ETH-USD7.00-2.50%-0.36%33.33%57.14%42.86%
fib_retest_longbaseline15.00SOL-USD5.00-0.60%-0.12%33.33%40.00%80.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00BTC-USD8.00-0.36%-0.04%26.67%50.00%75.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00ETH-USD5.00-1.66%-0.33%23.81%80.00%20.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00SOL-USD3.00-1.94%-0.65%20.00%33.33%66.67%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00BTC-USD8.00-1.00%-0.12%26.67%50.00%75.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00ETH-USD5.00-2.06%-0.41%23.81%80.00%20.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00SOL-USD3.00-2.18%-0.73%20.00%33.33%66.67%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00BTC-USD8.00-1.80%-0.22%26.67%50.00%75.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00ETH-USD5.00-2.56%-0.51%23.81%80.00%20.00%
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00SOL-USD3.00-2.48%-0.83%20.00%33.33%66.67%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_806.00BTC-USD8.00-0.36%-0.04%26.67%50.00%75.00%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_806.00ETH-USD4.00-1.37%-0.34%19.05%75.00%25.00%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_806.00SOL-USD3.00-1.94%-0.65%20.00%33.33%66.67%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00BTC-USD8.00-1.00%-0.12%26.67%50.00%75.00%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00ETH-USD4.00-1.69%-0.42%19.05%75.00%25.00%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00SOL-USD3.00-2.18%-0.73%20.00%33.33%66.67%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00BTC-USD8.00-1.80%-0.22%26.67%50.00%75.00%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00ETH-USD4.00-2.09%-0.52%19.05%75.00%25.00%
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00SOL-USD3.00-2.48%-0.83%20.00%33.33%66.67%

Time-pocket buckets

setupvariantcost_bps_per_sidebucketbucket_returnpositive_bucket
breakout_shortbaseline6.00bucket_1-0.24%0.00
breakout_shortbaseline6.00bucket_2-0.03%0.00
breakout_shortbaseline6.00bucket_3-0.43%0.00
breakout_shortbaseline10.00bucket_1-0.32%0.00
breakout_shortbaseline10.00bucket_2-0.11%0.00
breakout_shortbaseline10.00bucket_3-0.51%0.00
breakout_shortbaseline15.00bucket_1-0.42%0.00
breakout_shortbaseline15.00bucket_2-0.21%0.00
breakout_shortbaseline15.00bucket_3-0.61%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_1-0.18%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_2-0.24%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_3-0.25%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_1-0.26%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_2-0.32%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_3-0.33%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_1-0.36%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_2-0.42%0.00
breakout_shortno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_3-0.43%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_1-0.20%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_2-0.49%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_3-0.23%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_1-0.28%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_2-0.57%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_3-0.31%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_1-0.38%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_2-0.67%0.00
breakout_shortrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_3-0.41%0.00
ema_psar_longbaseline6.00bucket_1-0.48%0.00
ema_psar_longbaseline6.00bucket_20.01%1.00
ema_psar_longbaseline6.00bucket_30.01%1.00
ema_psar_longbaseline10.00bucket_1-0.56%0.00
ema_psar_longbaseline10.00bucket_2-0.07%0.00
ema_psar_longbaseline10.00bucket_3-0.07%0.00
ema_psar_longbaseline15.00bucket_1-0.66%0.00
ema_psar_longbaseline15.00bucket_2-0.17%0.00
ema_psar_longbaseline15.00bucket_3-0.17%0.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_10.04%1.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_20.01%1.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_3-0.09%0.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_1-0.04%0.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_2-0.07%0.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_3-0.17%0.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_1-0.14%0.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_2-0.17%0.00
ema_psar_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_3-0.27%0.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_10.04%1.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_2-0.00%0.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_30.27%1.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_1-0.04%0.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_2-0.08%0.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_30.19%1.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_1-0.14%0.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_2-0.18%0.00
ema_psar_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_30.09%1.00
fib_retest_longbaseline6.00bucket_1-0.19%0.00
fib_retest_longbaseline6.00bucket_20.05%1.00
fib_retest_longbaseline6.00bucket_30.07%1.00
fib_retest_longbaseline10.00bucket_1-0.27%0.00
fib_retest_longbaseline10.00bucket_2-0.03%0.00
fib_retest_longbaseline10.00bucket_3-0.01%0.00
fib_retest_longbaseline15.00bucket_1-0.37%0.00
fib_retest_longbaseline15.00bucket_2-0.13%0.00
fib_retest_longbaseline15.00bucket_3-0.11%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_1-0.02%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_2-0.60%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme6.00bucket_3-0.18%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_1-0.10%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_2-0.68%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme10.00bucket_3-0.26%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_1-0.20%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_2-0.78%0.00
fib_retest_longno_high_vol_extreme15.00bucket_3-0.36%0.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_10.04%1.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_2-0.60%0.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_806.00bucket_3-0.18%0.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_1-0.04%0.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_2-0.68%0.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8010.00bucket_3-0.26%0.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_1-0.14%0.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_2-0.78%0.00
fib_retest_longrv_midband_q20_8015.00bucket_3-0.36%0.00