Rank213 monthly-volume causal universe:分段稳定性

本页只看 monthly volume rebuild 口径:每月用上一完整自然月 Binance UM perpetual 1d quote_volume 选 top30,再跑 Rank213。目标是把 plain / veto / fixed gate / percentile gate 四条证据链并排,检查年度、regime、3y/5y 窗口稳定性。

sample 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z → 2026-04-10T18:00:00Z 18087 rebalances 75 months percentile gate q=60

读法:plain/veto 的 open rate 恒为 100%;gate 线的 open rate 就是开门率。cum/DD 都在每个 segment 内重新归一化,避免跨段权益曲线污染。

结论快照(全样本)

直接结论:monthly-volume 下 baseline 本身并不稳;veto 不是修复器,反而在全样本更差。固定阈值 gate 太稀疏,只把亏损缩小但没转正;percentile q60 能把全样本拉到轻微正值,但 DD 仍很深,不能当“已过关”。

全样本四线长表

labelmonthsrebalancesnet_mean_bpsnet_cum_pctmax_drawdown_pctopen_rate_pctwin_rate_pctavg_turnover_xavg_eligible_universe_size
1) plain baseline7518087-1.58 bps-98.09%-99.62%100.00%46.66%1.000x29.3277
2) baseline + veto7518087-2.53 bps-99.60%-99.79%100.00%46.01%1.074x29.3277
3a) veto + fixed gate7518087-0.23 bps-37.13%-48.63%3.54%1.61%0.042x29.3277
3b) veto + percentile gate q6075180870.18 bps6.47%-71.22%16.44%7.97%0.180x29.3277

按年切:四线并排宽表

指标后缀含义:net_mean_bps / net_cum_pct / max_drawdown_pct / open_rate_pct。

segmentbaseline_plus_veto.max_drawdown_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_fixed_gate.max_drawdown_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_percentile_gate_q60.max_drawdown_pctplain_baseline.max_drawdown_pctbaseline_plus_veto.net_cum_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_fixed_gate.net_cum_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_percentile_gate_q60.net_cum_pctplain_baseline.net_cum_pctbaseline_plus_veto.net_mean_bpsbaseline_plus_veto_plus_fixed_gate.net_mean_bpsbaseline_plus_veto_plus_percentile_gate_q60.net_mean_bpsplain_baseline.net_mean_bpsbaseline_plus_veto.open_rate_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_fixed_gate.open_rate_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_percentile_gate_q60.open_rate_pctplain_baseline.open_rate_pct
2020-60.25%0.00%-12.60%-51.20%-54.71%0.00%27.00%-43.06%-2.61 bps0.00 bps1.02 bps-1.74 bps100.00%0.00%18.13%100.00%
2021-64.02%0.00%-24.31%-59.38%-17.95%0.00%75.14%7.13%0.00 bps0.00 bps2.23 bps0.94 bps100.00%0.00%33.42%100.00%
2022-81.37%0.00%0.00%-82.36%-80.24%0.00%0.00%-81.04%-5.13 bps0.00 bps0.00 bps-5.25 bps100.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%
2023-62.90%-3.53%-14.21%-58.38%-30.83%8.58%36.34%-25.01%-0.93 bps0.29 bps1.15 bps-0.63 bps100.00%2.29%8.56%100.00%
2024-78.92%-1.37%-46.13%-82.24%-76.72%0.27%-36.14%-81.52%-4.55 bps0.01 bps-1.35 bps-5.30 bps100.00%0.24%24.08%100.00%
2025-76.90%-41.12%-36.60%-68.98%-73.32%-37.38%-36.22%-53.00%-3.76 bps-1.49 bps-1.42 bps-1.70 bps100.00%16.06%16.03%100.00%
2026-37.82%-16.14%-21.62%-44.12%25.27%-7.77%-13.79%153.60%4.02 bps-0.78 bps-1.64 bps13.69 bps100.00%12.27%11.14%100.00%

按年切:可读长表

segmentlabelmonthsrebalancesnet_mean_bpsnet_cum_pctmax_drawdown_pctopen_rate_pctwin_rate_pctavg_turnover_xavg_eligible_universe_size
20201) plain baseline112680-1.74 bps-43.06%-51.20%100.00%46.75%1.000x25.7160
20202) baseline + veto112680-2.61 bps-54.71%-60.25%100.00%46.04%1.031x25.7160
20203a) veto + fixed gate1126800.00 bps0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000x25.7160
20203b) veto + percentile gate q601126801.02 bps27.00%-12.60%18.13%9.22%0.190x25.7160
20211) plain baseline1229200.94 bps7.13%-59.38%100.00%47.23%1.000x30.0000
20212) baseline + veto1229200.00 bps-17.95%-64.02%100.00%46.64%1.051x30.0000
20213a) veto + fixed gate1229200.00 bps0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000x30.0000
20213b) veto + percentile gate q601229202.23 bps75.14%-24.31%33.42%16.20%0.351x30.0000
20221) plain baseline122920-5.25 bps-81.04%-82.36%100.00%44.62%1.000x29.7678
20222) baseline + veto122920-5.13 bps-80.24%-81.37%100.00%44.08%1.034x29.7678
20223a) veto + fixed gate1229200.00 bps0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000x29.7678
20223b) veto + percentile gate q601229200.00 bps0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000x29.7678
20231) plain baseline122920-0.63 bps-25.01%-58.38%100.00%47.29%1.000x30.0000
20232) baseline + veto122920-0.93 bps-30.83%-62.90%100.00%46.99%1.063x30.0000
20233a) veto + fixed gate1229200.29 bps8.58%-3.53%2.29%1.16%0.025x30.0000
20233b) veto + percentile gate q601229201.15 bps36.34%-14.21%8.56%4.62%0.096x30.0000
20241) plain baseline122928-5.30 bps-81.52%-82.24%100.00%45.63%1.000x30.0000
20242) baseline + veto122928-4.55 bps-76.72%-78.92%100.00%46.04%1.056x30.0000
20243a) veto + fixed gate1229280.01 bps0.27%-1.37%0.24%0.14%0.003x30.0000
20243b) veto + percentile gate q60122928-1.35 bps-36.14%-46.13%24.08%11.44%0.260x30.0000
20251) plain baseline122920-1.70 bps-53.00%-68.98%100.00%47.40%1.000x30.0000
20252) baseline + veto122920-3.76 bps-73.32%-76.90%100.00%45.99%1.148x30.0000
20253a) veto + fixed gate122920-1.49 bps-37.38%-41.12%16.06%7.09%0.188x30.0000
20253b) veto + percentile gate q60122920-1.42 bps-36.22%-36.60%16.03%7.19%0.190x30.0000
20261) plain baseline479913.69 bps153.60%-44.12%100.00%50.56%1.000x30.0000
20262) baseline + veto47994.02 bps25.27%-37.82%100.00%47.06%1.292x30.0000
20263a) veto + fixed gate4799-0.78 bps-7.77%-16.14%12.27%5.88%0.168x30.0000
20263b) veto + percentile gate q604799-1.64 bps-13.79%-21.62%11.14%5.26%0.154x30.0000

按 regime 切:calendar phase 宽表

先给最直观的研究阶段切分:2020-2021 / 2022-2023 / 2024-2026。后面再给 BTC 64-bar trend 与横截面离散度 tercile 的环境切分。

segmentbaseline_plus_veto.max_drawdown_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_fixed_gate.max_drawdown_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_percentile_gate_q60.max_drawdown_pctplain_baseline.max_drawdown_pctbaseline_plus_veto.net_cum_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_fixed_gate.net_cum_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_percentile_gate_q60.net_cum_pctplain_baseline.net_cum_pctbaseline_plus_veto.net_mean_bpsbaseline_plus_veto_plus_fixed_gate.net_mean_bpsbaseline_plus_veto_plus_percentile_gate_q60.net_mean_bpsplain_baseline.net_mean_bpsbaseline_plus_veto.open_rate_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_fixed_gate.open_rate_pctbaseline_plus_veto_plus_percentile_gate_q60.open_rate_pctplain_baseline.open_rate_pct
2020-2021 early/liquidity expansion-64.02%0.00%-24.31%-59.38%-62.84%0.00%122.42%-39.00%-1.25 bps0.00 bps1.65 bps-0.34 bps100.00%0.00%26.11%100.00%
2022-2023 bear-to-chop-92.82%-3.53%-14.21%-92.21%-86.33%8.58%36.34%-85.78%-3.03 bps0.15 bps0.58 bps-2.94 bps100.00%1.15%4.28%100.00%
2024-2026 recent/high-beta-96.14%-48.63%-71.22%-93.77%-92.22%-42.09%-64.89%-77.98%-3.17 bps-0.74 bps-1.41 bps-1.44 bps100.00%8.64%18.99%100.00%

按 regime 切:完整长表

segment_typesegmentlabelmonthsrebalancesnet_mean_bpsnet_cum_pctmax_drawdown_pctopen_rate_pctwin_rate_pctavg_turnover_xavg_eligible_universe_size
regime_calendar_phase2020-2021 early/liquidity expansion1) plain baseline235600-0.34 bps-39.00%-59.38%100.00%47.00%1.000x27.9498
regime_calendar_phase2020-2021 early/liquidity expansion2) baseline + veto235600-1.25 bps-62.84%-64.02%100.00%46.36%1.042x27.9498
regime_calendar_phase2020-2021 early/liquidity expansion3a) veto + fixed gate2356000.00 bps0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000x27.9498
regime_calendar_phase2020-2021 early/liquidity expansion3b) veto + percentile gate q602356001.65 bps122.42%-24.31%26.11%12.86%0.274x27.9498
regime_calendar_phase2022-2023 bear-to-chop1) plain baseline245840-2.94 bps-85.78%-92.21%100.00%45.96%1.000x29.8839
regime_calendar_phase2022-2023 bear-to-chop2) baseline + veto245840-3.03 bps-86.33%-92.82%100.00%45.53%1.048x29.8839
regime_calendar_phase2022-2023 bear-to-chop3a) veto + fixed gate2458400.15 bps8.58%-3.53%1.15%0.58%0.012x29.8839
regime_calendar_phase2022-2023 bear-to-chop3b) veto + percentile gate q602458400.58 bps36.34%-14.21%4.28%2.31%0.048x29.8839
regime_calendar_phase2024-2026 recent/high-beta1) plain baseline286647-1.44 bps-77.98%-93.77%100.00%47.00%1.000x30.0000
regime_calendar_phase2024-2026 recent/high-beta2) baseline + veto286647-3.17 bps-92.22%-96.14%100.00%46.14%1.125x30.0000
regime_calendar_phase2024-2026 recent/high-beta3a) veto + fixed gate286647-0.74 bps-42.09%-48.63%8.64%3.88%0.104x30.0000
regime_calendar_phase2024-2026 recent/high-beta3b) veto + percentile gate q60286647-1.41 bps-64.89%-71.22%18.99%8.83%0.216x30.0000
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_down_64bar<=-1.5%1) plain baseline753348-4.97 bps-85.14%-91.86%100.00%45.43%1.000x29.2503
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_down_64bar<=-1.5%2) baseline + veto753348-4.49 bps-82.01%-88.73%100.00%45.13%1.045x29.2503
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_down_64bar<=-1.5%3a) veto + fixed gate7533480.16 bps5.19%-5.96%1.34%0.66%0.014x29.2503
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_down_64bar<=-1.5%3b) veto + percentile gate q60753348-0.85 bps-28.19%-32.40%15.92%7.08%0.165x29.2503
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_flat_64bar[-1.5%,+1.5%]1) plain baseline7511005-0.97 bps-81.20%-97.13%100.00%46.72%1.000x29.3620
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_flat_64bar[-1.5%,+1.5%]2) baseline + veto7511005-2.30 bps-95.20%-98.52%100.00%45.91%1.087x29.3620
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_flat_64bar[-1.5%,+1.5%]3a) veto + fixed gate7511005-0.54 bps-47.03%-57.53%4.35%1.94%0.053x29.3620
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_flat_64bar[-1.5%,+1.5%]3b) veto + percentile gate q607511005-0.04 bps-17.10%-61.53%15.37%7.51%0.171x29.3620
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_up_64bar>=+1.5%1) plain baseline753734-0.35 bps-31.66%-52.96%100.00%47.59%1.000x29.2962
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_up_64bar>=+1.5%2) baseline + veto753734-1.45 bps-54.24%-60.12%100.00%47.11%1.064x29.2962
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_up_64bar>=+1.5%3a) veto + fixed gate7537340.36 bps12.84%-11.45%3.13%1.50%0.037x29.2962
regime_btc_64bar_trendbtc_up_64bar>=+1.5%3b) veto + percentile gate q607537341.74 bps78.83%-24.14%20.06%10.15%0.218x29.2962
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilelow_xs_dispersion_p0_p301) plain baseline745426-4.17 bps-90.74%-91.15%100.00%45.25%1.000x28.4620
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilelow_xs_dispersion_p0_p302) baseline + veto745426-4.83 bps-93.49%-93.74%100.00%44.49%1.044x28.4620
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilelow_xs_dispersion_p0_p303a) veto + fixed gate745426-0.08 bps-4.61%-9.98%1.44%0.65%0.016x28.4620
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilelow_xs_dispersion_p0_p303b) veto + percentile gate q60745426-0.12 bps-7.03%-17.52%3.26%1.49%0.036x28.4620
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilemid_xs_dispersion_p30_p701) plain baseline757235-1.92 bps-81.48%-90.12%100.00%47.21%1.000x29.5599
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilemid_xs_dispersion_p30_p702) baseline + veto757235-2.21 bps-84.69%-89.60%100.00%46.69%1.066x29.5599
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilemid_xs_dispersion_p30_p703a) veto + fixed gate757235-0.08 bps-6.61%-21.56%3.84%1.77%0.045x29.5599
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilemid_xs_dispersion_p30_p703b) veto + percentile gate q607572350.62 bps48.30%-20.15%14.18%7.12%0.154x29.5599
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilehigh_xs_dispersion_p70_p1001) plain baseline7554261.46 bps11.39%-80.60%100.00%47.35%1.000x29.8839
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilehigh_xs_dispersion_p70_p1002) baseline + veto755426-0.65 bps-60.35%-84.32%100.00%46.63%1.116x29.8839
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilehigh_xs_dispersion_p70_p1003a) veto + fixed gate755426-0.57 bps-29.42%-34.67%5.25%2.38%0.066x29.8839
regime_xs_dispersion_tercilehigh_xs_dispersion_p70_p1003b) veto + percentile gate q60755426-0.10 bps-22.78%-62.22%32.64%15.59%0.358x29.8839

3y / 5y rolling window 稳定性

只保留至少 24 个月的 3y 窗口、至少 36 个月的 5y 窗口;2026 是 YTD,因此尾部窗口会标注 YTD。

segment_typesegmentlabelmonthsrebalancesnet_mean_bpsnet_cum_pctmax_drawdown_pctopen_rate_pctwin_rate_pctavg_turnover_xavg_eligible_universe_size
rolling_3y2020-2022 (3y)1) plain baseline358520-2.03 bps-88.44%-92.45%100.00%46.19%1.000x28.5729
rolling_3y2020-2022 (3y)2) baseline + veto358520-2.58 bps-92.66%-92.88%100.00%45.58%1.039x28.5729
rolling_3y2020-2022 (3y)3a) veto + fixed gate3585200.00 bps0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000x28.5729
rolling_3y2020-2022 (3y)3b) veto + percentile gate q603585201.09 bps122.42%-24.31%17.16%8.45%0.180x28.5729
rolling_3y2021-2023 (3y)1) plain baseline368760-1.65 bps-84.77%-96.67%100.00%46.38%1.000x29.9226
rolling_3y2021-2023 (3y)2) baseline + veto368760-2.02 bps-88.79%-97.26%100.00%45.90%1.049x29.9226
rolling_3y2021-2023 (3y)3a) veto + fixed gate3687600.10 bps8.58%-3.53%0.76%0.39%0.008x29.9226
rolling_3y2021-2023 (3y)3b) veto + percentile gate q603687601.13 bps138.78%-24.31%14.00%6.94%0.149x29.9226
rolling_3y2022-2024 (3y)1) plain baseline368768-3.73 bps-97.37%-97.47%100.00%45.85%1.000x29.9227
rolling_3y2022-2024 (3y)2) baseline + veto368768-3.54 bps-96.82%-96.96%100.00%45.70%1.051x29.9227
rolling_3y2022-2024 (3y)3a) veto + fixed gate3687680.10 bps8.87%-4.41%0.84%0.43%0.009x29.9227
rolling_3y2022-2024 (3y)3b) veto + percentile gate q60368768-0.07 bps-12.94%-46.13%10.89%5.36%0.119x29.9227
rolling_3y2023-2025 (3y)1) plain baseline368768-2.54 bps-93.49%-94.89%100.00%46.77%1.000x30.0000
rolling_3y2023-2025 (3y)2) baseline + veto368768-3.08 bps-95.70%-96.11%100.00%46.34%1.089x30.0000
rolling_3y2023-2025 (3y)3a) veto + fixed gate368768-0.40 bps-31.83%-41.12%6.19%2.79%0.072x30.0000
rolling_3y2023-2025 (3y)3b) veto + percentile gate q60368768-0.54 bps-44.47%-64.87%16.23%7.76%0.182x30.0000
rolling_3y2024-2026 (3y)1) plain baseline286647-1.44 bps-77.98%-93.77%100.00%47.00%1.000x30.0000
rolling_3y2024-2026 (3y)2) baseline + veto286647-3.17 bps-92.22%-96.14%100.00%46.14%1.125x30.0000
rolling_3y2024-2026 (3y)3a) veto + fixed gate286647-0.74 bps-42.09%-48.63%8.64%3.88%0.104x30.0000
rolling_3y2024-2026 (3y)3b) veto + percentile gate q60286647-1.41 bps-64.89%-71.22%18.99%8.83%0.216x30.0000
rolling_5y2020-2024 (5y)1) plain baseline5914368-2.41 bps-98.40%-98.92%100.00%46.30%1.000x29.1537
rolling_5y2020-2024 (5y)2) baseline + veto5914368-2.64 bps-98.82%-98.84%100.00%45.96%1.047x29.1537
rolling_5y2020-2024 (5y)3a) veto + fixed gate59143680.06 bps8.87%-4.41%0.52%0.26%0.006x29.1537
rolling_5y2020-2024 (5y)3b) veto + percentile gate q6059143680.60 bps93.65%-46.13%16.82%8.28%0.179x29.1537
rolling_5y2021-2025 (5y)1) plain baseline6014608-2.39 bps-98.68%-99.59%100.00%46.43%1.000x29.9536
rolling_5y2021-2025 (5y)2) baseline + veto6014608-2.87 bps-99.30%-99.71%100.00%45.95%1.070x29.9536
rolling_5y2021-2025 (5y)3a) veto + fixed gate6014608-0.24 bps-31.83%-41.12%3.72%1.68%0.043x29.9536
rolling_5y2021-2025 (5y)3b) veto + percentile gate q6060146080.12 bps-2.75%-64.87%16.42%7.89%0.179x29.9536
rolling_5y2022-2026 (5y)1) plain baseline5212487-2.14 bps-96.87%-99.11%100.00%46.51%1.000x29.9457
rolling_5y2022-2026 (5y)2) baseline + veto5212487-3.10 bps-98.94%-99.44%100.00%45.86%1.089x29.9457
rolling_5y2022-2026 (5y)3a) veto + fixed gate5212487-0.33 bps-37.13%-48.63%5.13%2.34%0.061x29.9457
rolling_5y2022-2026 (5y)3b) veto + percentile gate q605212487-0.48 bps-52.13%-71.22%12.11%5.78%0.138x29.9457
rolling_5y2023-2026 (5y YTD)1) plain baseline409567-1.19 bps-83.48%-95.25%100.00%47.09%1.000x30.0000
rolling_5y2023-2026 (5y YTD)2) baseline + veto409567-2.49 bps-94.62%-97.13%100.00%46.40%1.106x30.0000
rolling_5y2023-2026 (5y YTD)3a) veto + fixed gate409567-0.43 bps-37.13%-48.63%6.70%3.05%0.080x30.0000
rolling_5y2023-2026 (5y YTD)3b) veto + percentile gate q60409567-0.63 bps-52.13%-71.22%15.80%7.55%0.179x30.0000

落盘产物